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Scenario and Intervention Modelling in Ireland for Stroke: Evaluating the effect of alternative policy scenarios and interventions for stroke in Ireland on outcomes and costs

Context
Improving post-stroke survival, and an ageing population, means that the prevalence of stroke and post-stroke cognitive impairment (CI)/dementia in Ireland is projected to increase in coming decades. A rapidly changing evidence-base for successful acute stroke treatments, and historically under-developed rehabilitation services, implies a critical need for further development of services for stroke prevention and management in Ireland.
Aims and Objectives
The aim is to evaluate alterative policy options for stroke prevention and management in Ireland, using population-based epidemiological and economic modelling, to identify potentially effective and cost-effective interventions, and inform key strategic planning of services.
Research Design
Work package 1 (WP1) will engage key stakeholders (policy-makers, health-care professionals, patients, families) to identify priority policy options (i.e., interventions) for evaluation, and evidence to support these. Work Package 2 (WP2) will further develop an existing epidemiological/economic model of stroke (the StrokeCog model) into a multi-application model capable of modelling outcomes associated with multiple interventions, in stroke survivors and the population. Work package 3 (WP3) will involve applying the interventions identified in WP1 to the model developed in WP2, identifying the potential projected impact of each policy option on outcomes and costs in Ireland to 2046. Outcomes will include stroke incidence, prevalence and post-stroke outcomes (survival, functional and cognitive outcomes, quality of life). To maximise potential for application to policy/practice, we will involve key stakeholders (as above) throughout the research, as collaborators on the research team, through a stakeholder engagement exercise, and active targeted dissemination activities.
Impact Policy options with the greatest potential to improve stroke outcomes, and detailed information on potential future need for services and costs, will be identified. This research evidence can be directly applied to inform prioritisation of services, and to estimate resources required for implementation, which has considerable potential to improve population health outcomes in Ireland.