While it is well-established that early psychological well-being predicts later mental health, the role of broad, pervasive environmental stressors in such processes is less understood. Most important, few studies link environmental exposures like the pandemic and its associated social restrictions with developmental processes that give them unique meaning and consequences. This research examines how the pandemic/lockdown conditions have variable effects on mental health and illuminates the mechanisms at work. To do so, we exploit the unique design of the Growing up in Ireland study – one cohort studied from age 3 to 13 and another studied from age 9 to 22. We use three complementary strategies: Model trajectories of psychological well-being through the COVID-19 period in relation to different types of exposures to the pandemic and indicators of pre-pandemic risk and resilience and compare models across cohorts and genders.
Identify sub-groups hat have unique patterns of psychological well-being over time (e.g., poor and stable, declining) within the pre-pandemic GUI data using growth mixture modelling and combine these with the exposure measures and measures of risk and resilience to predict pandemic related mental health across cohorts and gender.
Strengthen causal inference of pandemic/lockdown exposures by applying a “difference-in-difference” approach to complementary panels for the two cohorts spanning ages 9 to 12/13 with only the younger cohort exposed to the pandemic.
Identifying heterogeneity in the developmental consequences of exposure to the pandemic and the mechanisms that ameliorate or exacerbate its effects has important implications for policy and interventions to support psychological well-being. With explicit attention to social differentiation – by gender, socioeconomic status, disability, nativity, urban/rural location, and family structure – the research provides a tight lens on the implications of the pandemic/lockdown for psychological well-being and identifies sources of risk and resilience that either exacerbate or ameliorate the consequences of exposure.
